Soybeans Tech Update
Grain Market Commentary
Wednesday, January 10, 2018
by Jacob Christy, Freedom Program Trader
Beans took it on the chin again today as the market continued to feel pressure from the looming USDA crop report this Friday. Futures hit their lowest levels in four months with the market showing almost no ability to hold a break since early December. Prices look susceptible to further losses if the expectations for the report are realized, but where could we be headed?
Looking at the chart shows the steep downward trend in prices since early December. Prices attempted to stabilize the last two weeks, but with the oversold condition solved, and lacking fresh news, the market could no longer hold old support. To the downside 950 might offer initial psychological support, but the old August low just above 937 is a clear target that coincides nicely with the Fibonacci extension of last week’s attempted recovery. To the upside the market has struggled to clear the 20-day moving average that now sits at 968, while the cluster of more major moving averages offers strong resistance from 976-988.
The bean market is under pressure as bearish fundamentals catch up to wrongly positioned speculators. Short term the market is going to be driven by the data from the Government this Friday, more precisely how it compares to expectations, but form a pure technical standpoint the path of least resistance remains lower for the beans.