Soybeans Tech Update
Grain Market Commentary
Wednesday, May 9, 2018
by Jacob Christy, Freedom Program Trader
Beans see another choppy volatile session on the eve of the USDA May report. The cross winds of multiple weather stories, ongoing U.S.-Chinese trade negotiations, and looming USDA and CONAB reports, have kept the bean market uneasy. With prices now at key long term support, the short direction of the bean market may be determined in the next few sessions.
After failing to decisively push above the 50-day moving average last week, bean prices fell under pressure on fund liquidation early this week. Prices closed below both the 100 and 200-day moving averages Monday for the first time in three months. Despite an initial recovery effort yesterday, futures were again testing the weekly low and chopping around the 200-day moving average. A decisive close either above or below the 200-day moving average probably set the short term technical tone. Breaking the long term trend line would indicate a test of the 1000 area, while initial upside targets sit near the 50-day moving average at 1049.
There remains quite a bit of length left in the market but at the same time a big chunk has been liquidated this week. The report tomorrow probably dedicates weather the remaining longs sellout or the recently liquidated positions re-establish. An interesting two sessions lie ahead as we finish the week.