Soybeans Tech Update
Grain Market Commentary
Wednesday, November 7, 2018
by Jacob Christy, Freedom Program Trader
Another quiet day of consolidation for the bean market as trade awaits the USDA crop report tomorrow. Bulls and bears are at a stalemate as neither wants to heavily commit with the uncertainty over the crop report and Chinese trade war. Traded volume has waned, with prices stuck just above their 100-day moving average as range bound trade continues.
Looking at the bean chart shows a broad sideways range from 830-930. Three intense short covering pops have kept prices sideways since the major early summer selloff. Funds remain sizably short as fundamentals remain heavy without a Chinese trade resolution. For now the 100-day moving average has provided support this week with the 50-day moving average 10c below there. The market has struggled to clear the 900 mark since August making it a clear upward target.
The bean market finds itself at an impasse. Too much rides on a potential trade war resolution, or lack thereof, for many new position to be established. Tomorrows report should set the short term tone, before eyes shift to the G20 summit meeting at months end. Keep an eye on the moving averages as key supports this week, while the market will need to sustain a move above 900 to spook more of the shorts out.