Special Market Update

Grain Market Commentary

Monday, May 15, 2017

By Amy Sage, Executive Account Representative

The USDA released its monthly supply & demand report for May on Wednesday.  This report contained their first estimate for the 2017/2018 crop. It was relatively friendly to corn and wheat and neutral to soybeans. Keep in mind that this is the first attempt at these numbers and they will continue to reevaluate on a monthly basis. World corn stocks for 2017/2018 came in 14mmt below the average trade guess and 27mmt lower than 2016/2017. This is the largest decline year to year since 1993. The US stocks were not a surprise but still trend lower than 2016/2017 using a pretty high yield at 170.7.

All eyes remain on weather and crop progress. We wait patiently to get a handle on replant acres here in central IL after another rain came through this past week (which should help emergence for both corn and beans that were planted the last week in April). We do not anticipate acreage shifts in the greater Champaign, IL area but will closely monitor the potential for less corn and more bean acres in other regions.

There still is plenty of old corn left out there but with 4 million less acres of corn for 2017 and funds being short, there is upside potential throughout this growing season. Be ready with offers and strategies in place to manage your risk and take advantage of opportunities that may present themselves over the course of the next few months.

2017 US Corn Crop Breakdown

PRODUCTION

90 million planted acres

X 91.5% to be harvested

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

82.4 million harvested acres

X 170.7 bpa yield

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

14.065 billion bushel 2017 corn production

+ 2.295 billion bushel carryover from 2016 crop

+ 50 million bushels of corn imports

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

16.410 billion bushel supply

 

USAGE

5.500 billion bushels for ethanol

5.425 billion bushels for feed and residual

1.875 billion bushels for exports

1.500 billion bushels for food, seed, and industrial use

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

14.300 billion bushel demand

 

CARRY-OUT

2.295 billion bushel carry-in from 2016 crop

+ 14.065 billion bushel 2017 crop

+ 0.050 billion bushel imports

- 14.300 billion bushel usage

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

2.110 billion bushel ending U.S. stocks 

 

2017 US Soybean Crop Breakdown

PRODUCTION

89.5 million planted acres

X 99.0% to be harvested

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

88.6 million harvested acres

X 48.0 bpa yield

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

4.255 billion bushel 2017 corn production

+ 0.435 billion bushel carryover from 2016 crop

+ 25 million bushels of bean imports

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

4.715 billion bushel supply

 

USAGE

2.150 billion bushels for exports

1.950 billion bushels for crush

0.101 billion bushels for seed

0.034 billion bushels for residual

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

4.235 billion bushel demand

 


CARRY-OUT

435 million bushel carry-in from 2016 crop

+ 25 million bushels imported

+ 4.255 billion bushel 2017 crop

- 4.235 billion bushel usage

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

480 million bushel ending U.S. stocks

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