Special Market Update

Grain Market Commentary

Monday, January 8, 2018

By Risk Management, The Andersons

How big could the USDA cut bean exports on Friday?

On Friday January 12 the USDA will release one of their largest reports of the year that will provide significant information for the ending stocks and therefore prices to start the year for critical planting decisions come spring.

Downward revisions on the export side for both corn and soybeans are expected on Friday. Specifically, soybeans have room to have a significant adjustment lower on exports. Census export estimates available through November and inspections in December have made the problem appear worse.

For the first quarter of the marketing year, soybean exports were 849.3mbu,76.6mbu less than last year’s level over the same time. December soybean inspections have trailed last year’s inspections by about 100mbu in the month alone.

The USDA was expecting an increase year over year by about 50mbu for the entire marketing year. The current Soybean export trend doesn’t appear favorable for the lofty USDA export goals, without a major crop problem in Brazil the trend should continue. It is very possible the USDA cuts Soybean exports on Friday anywhere from 50-150 million bushels which would significantly add to the carryout.