Weekly Market Wrap-Up
Grain Market Commentary
Friday, August 11, 2017
by David Gleason, Associate Merchandiser
Grains had a down week as the USDA came out with some surprising yield estimates. The trade was caught off guard and the market traded sharply lower on Thursday. The US and North Korea have been spatting back and forth this week. Equities and the dollar have been headed south in response to the potential threat of war. The dollar will need to be watched as we could see a shift in export demand for the upcoming year. Oil is really consolidating here this week between $50 and the 100 day moving average.
December corn opened the week at $3.82 ¾ and closed the week out at $3.74 ¾. Corn tried to rally to start out the week and ran into stiff resistance at 100 and 200 day moving averages. The trade had an average yield estimate of 166.2 bushels per acre and the USDA called the yield 169.5 bushels per acre. The more than 3 bushel an acre miss was enough to help the market trade lower by 15 cents on Thursday. The trade did pause at the $3.70 level which could provide further support into next week, but if beans continue to wash out it feels like corn has more downside on the chart. A final yield in the upper 160’s will solidify a 17/18 carryout north of 2 billion bushels.
November beans opened the week at $9.62 ½ and closed the week out at $9.45. Beans also rallied to start the week and washed out on a yield estimate above trend line yield. The trade predicted a 47.5-bushel yield and the USDA came out with a 49.4-bushel yield. The US has seen increased export business for both old crop and new crop. South America is switching to exporting corn for the next couple months and their remaining beans will likely be in tight hands.