Weekly Market Wrap-Up
Grain Market Commentary
Friday, August 4, 2017
by David Gleason, Associate Merchandiser
Grains turned over on the week on friendly weather forecasts. The damage appears to already be done on corn, but beans could still manage to make trend yield or better. We saw a couple of private corn estimates this week from FCStone and Informa. FCStone predicted the corn yield at 162.8 bushels and the bean yield at 47.7 bushels per acre, while Informa came in at 165.9 bushels on the corn and beans came in at 47.3 bushels per acre. Oil is consolidating just below $50.00 a barrel as the market debates whether the US can produce oil profitably at these levels. The dollar rallied today on a friendly jobs report, and will provide headwinds to any potential export business for the US.
December corn opened the week out at $3.84 ½ and closed the week out at $3.81. Dec corn found support this week at $3.75 as we saw weakened yield estimates from a couple private forecasters. Going forward it will be difficult to drive the corn market up to $4.00 as many bushels remain unpriced unless we can manage to get a national yield below 160. If the market rallies back near $3.90 it may be a good idea to get bushels that need to move during harvest time frame priced.
November beans opened the week at $10.03 and closed the week out at $9.56 ¾. Good to excellent condition ratings improved 2 points this week on better rains across the belt. Look for conditions to take another step forward on Monday as much of the growing area saw good rains and cooler temperatures this week. Beans did some major technical damage to the charts this week as the trade changes their thought from a below trend line yield to at trend line or slightly above. Beans should be watched carefully and producers should look to extend coverage if we can get another weather scare in the market.