Weekly Market Wrap-Up
Grain Market Commentary
Friday, October 5, 2018
by Jay Smith, Grain Associate, The Andersons
Trade, weather, and anticipation of next week’s WASDE report were the market drivers this week. New month, new money commodity sector buying lent a small boost early in the week. The U.S., Mexico, and Canada came to a new trade agreement which lent support to the corn market early in the week. The agreement is essentially a revised NAFTA, but the headlines boosted markets regardless. These early gains were halted as an increase in private yield estimates and increased carryout stocks have caused for repositions in the markets. The western corn belt has been realizing wet conditions through the end of the week leading into the weekend. The oversaturation is starting to raise quality concerns and has put harvest in the region at a standstill. Markets have been choppy to sideways as anticipation of next week’s WASDE’s report builds. As for wheat, Russia announced they may be closing as many as 30 loading facilities for the next 90 days which would shift world attention to U.S. wheat moving forward.
Dec 18 corn started the week at $3.56 and closed the week at $3.68 a12-centincrease. Corn trade volume decreased as the week progressed which showed interest was waning after a boost from the trade announcement. The corn market is also in overbought territory which will leave it susceptible to reversals and repositioning as the next WASDE report is released next Thursday. Trade was met with some overhead technical resistance as the week progressed.
Nov 18 soybeans opened the week at $8.45 and closed the week at $8.69a 24-cent increase. Beans did finish above their 50-day moving average for just the second time since May but stalled out late in the week. Beans, like corn, are also in overbought territory which leaves them susceptible to reversals and repositioning with the announcement of next week’s WASDE report.