In observance of Good Friday, there will not be any opening or closing Market Commentary on March 29, 2024. 


Weekly Market Wrap-Up

Grain Market Commentary

Thursday, April 18, 2019

by Jay Smith, Grain Associate, The Andersons

Markets were on a shortened trading week due to the Good Friday/Easter holiday. It seemed as if there was a fair amount of intra commodity positioning throughout the week as funds prepare to roll to July contracts. U.S. weather and the ongoing Trade War continue to be the focal points of markets. Weather forecasts were little unchanged early as weather looked to remain wet for the next ten days. Midweek models turned warmer and drier which caused a considerable selloff across all grain markets. Even with weather looking to turn warmer, ground saturation will cause the moisture forecast to be closely monitored. Models are struggling with uncertainty of where and when to place moisture which may affect positioning in the market even if it does not have a physical effect on planting. Trade talks have been rather quiet for the last week and the markets are clearly tired of random flash headlines or tweets. The WSJ ran a headline saying the trade deal will look to be signed by the end of May which did lift markets off their daily lows but only by a few pennies and it was short lived. There has been less reaction to tweets, headlines, etc. as time has gone on and a concrete deal is needed to cause any real reaction. U.S. demand is eroding rather quickly which is making a trade deal desperately needed to save prices from the fundamentals.


May corn opened the week at $3.61 and closed at $3.58. A 3-cent decrease. Funds are holding on to a massive short position projected to be over 280,000 contracts which leaves corn open to headline risks. The USDA planting report released after the close on Monday had planting progress at just 3% compared to the 5-year average of 5%. With April looking to remain wet, the first half of May is now at the forefront of attention. Shorts will start to become very anxious if weather does not improve, but the U.S. farmer has proven only a small window is needed to get a significant amount of planting progress completed.

The Andersons Weekly Wrap Up April 18, 2019 Corn


May soybeans opened the week at $8.95 and closed at $8.80. A 15-cent decrease. Like corn, beans are also positioned very short with little fresh news to spook the shorts into covering their positions. The weekly export report was disappointing with beans hitting their lowest weekly exports since before the trade war began. Beans will continue to pay attention to trade negotiations and African Swine Fever and its effect on Chinese feed demand.

The Andersons Weekly Wrap Up April 18, 2019 Soybeans


May wheat opened the week at $4.63 and closed at $4.44. A 19-cent decrease. Wheat futures were down on losing the public Egyptian tender last week and mounting stories claiming the Russian wheat crop will be larger heading through 2019. The USDA report released Monday put 60% of U.S. wheat in G/E condition. This was in line with expectations, but over 30% greater YTD. Paired with the projected Russian crop, analysts are projecting large global stocks. World values collapsed on Tuesday leaving the U.S. in a tough spot trying to capture export business.  

The Andersons Weekly Wrap Up April 18, 2019 Wheat