Weekly Market Wrap-Up

This week kicked off with some moderately negative follow through from Friday’s USDA report, especially in soybeans. The trade was disappointed with no impactful changes to yield and production numbers. A reversal Tuesday saw a nice recovery with optimism over U.S./China trade talks which brought us back to a near month-long range bound trade.  However, with no significant change in carry-out bushels, no hindrance to South American harvest speed, and questions with U.S. acreage, the market will struggle to break out of its current range. 

Given this, the report did give a useful insight into the current status of Brazilian and Argentinian crops. Brazil’s crop estimate dropped as expected, and Argentina’s soybean estimate also fell slightly. But overall, the U.S. carry-out being close to a billion bushels keeps a lid on any rally for the time being. 

Adding to price movement difficulty, Thursday saw more slipping values due to poor export sales that pressured futures lower with the cancellation of some Chinese soybean sales. It has been made apparent that President Trump will meet with China’s President Xi sometime in March which could potentially support or burden markets further depending on the outcome.  There is still a tremendous workload ahead of this summit if talks are to conclude with positive results.

Soybeans

March bean futures opened the week at 9.1475, and finished the week at 9.075 in a mostly choppy trade. (see chart)

Corn

March Corn opened the week at 3.745 and finished the week at 3.7475, staying in a sideways trade topping out around 3.79. (see chart) 

Wheat

March Wheat futures opened Sunday night at 5.1725 and finished the week lower at 5.0425. (see chart)