Special Market Update

For the week Corn was up 13 cents; Soybeans up 41 and Winter Wheat prices were up, roughly 20 cents for Soft Red Winter, up 6 in the Hard Red Winter, and up 11 for Hard Red Spring. Monday the trend continued with corn closing up 5.25 and Soybeans closing up 1.25.   

Weather is at the forefront of everyone’s minds but the 11-16 day U.S. forecast shows average to slightly above average precipitation and temps for the Plains and Midwest with no cold air or frost threats.  

Soybeans

China bought approximately ten cargoes of US soybeans Thursday for shipment from the PNW in Oct-Nov-Dec as well as announced that they would exempt U.S. soybeans and Pork imports from additional tariffs.  Many view this as a good will action from China based on what they considered Trumps goodwill action of delaying the tariffs that were schedule for Oct 1. Without an actual agreement it’s unclear whether the positive momentum can continue now that beans have cleared technical resistance and are sitting at the $9.00 mark. Ideally the delay will allow meetings to take place prior to the tariffs going into effect.  Unless we see more purchases from china or talks actually occur it’s tough to see the market continuing to trade this story.

Corn

Corn was mostly along for the ride at the end of last week but may have its own story as the Trump administration is working on a biofuel reform package. Meetings took place last week with senators from key farm states as an effort to boost ethanol demand. He was also scheduled to meet the following day with senators representing the oil producing states. Prior to both of these meetings he also met with two of the largest U.S. refining companies to discuss the rising cost of biofuel blending mandates.  The direction it’s headed is unclear, but it is very clear that the corn industry is against capping the price of blending credits, stating it would undercut the incentive for biofuels blending. This is more of an “on the radar” but not having much impact today.

Producers continue to want to talk about the trade deal (or lack of) and impending weather / current crop conditions but these stories seem to be “traded out”.  How about the USDA reports? Whether you agree or disagree that’s what the market trades and we won’t know the final numbers until the January report. The market will wait for actual harvest reports and a tangible weather event before it moves based on either of these. Can you afford to wait it out? Do you have unpriced bushels that will be at the mercy of the market at time of delivery? What if no deal is met this year and we see favorable harvest conditions continue? Are you asking yourself these questions?