Special Market Update

We are less than 24 hours away from the highly anticipated March 31 Stocks report and planting intentions. We’re staying near the bottom of the recent trading range with the bears pulling for a corn number larger than the 92 million acres released from the Ag Forum in February. I think everyone is expecting a large acreage number in both corn & soybeans. Interestingly Corn stocks are at their lowest level in 6 years but still above almost any year prior to that in 34 years. Soybeans are at a five-year low, down almost 45% from two years ago.

2020 Corn acreage was 90.8, USDA outlook forum released 92, average trade guess is 93.2 2020 Soybeans were 83.1, outlook forum released 90.0 and average trade guess is also 90.0. Anything less than 90 would push us into demand rationing.

The market is currently trading a 15.6 bln crop in 21/22. Last year USDA said 97M in a 3.75 market and in 2019 101M at $4…

Brazil harvest is still lagging, corn is 51% complete vs 70% this time last year. The weekly pace is normal, but harvest as a whole is two weeks behind. Weather looks to be favorable for them to finish.  Brazil soybeans remain the cheapest in the marketplace. Harvest is 69% complete vs 77% last year. There have been no flash sales announced in days.

Once the report buzz dies down, stay tuned to ride the weather roller coaster and planting progress updates throughout April and May.