Weekly Market Wrap-Up
Grain Market Commentary
Friday, August 16, 2019
by Harrison Reiff, Account Representative, The Andersons
This week started off lower Monday morning heading into the USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports. The news from these reports dwarfed any other information that came out later in the week. The USDA reported that there were 90.005 million corn acres planted and are expecting 82.017 million acres to be harvested, well above what trade was expecting. The USDA also raised the national yield estimate on corn from 166 bpa to 169.5 bpa. Combined with the WASDE numbers raising the 2019-2020 ending stocks from 2,010 million bushels to 2,181 million bushels sent corn futures into a freefall and we were down limit (25 cents) on Monday by the end of the day. Soybeans came in at 76,700 million acres with 75,866 million acres harvested. USDA maintained Soybeans yield at 48.5 bushels per acre. Soybeans fell 12.5 cents on Monday, dragged down by the decline in corn futures. Wheat futures fell 27.75 cents on Monday with the USDA reporting higher Winter Wheat yield with 53.2 bpa on 24.924 million acres.
The Monday afternoon crop condition report couldn’t save corn on Tuesday as corn gapped lower on the overnights and finished the day down another 19.5 cents continuing the sell-off from Monday’s bombshell reports. Beans briefly found their footing on Tuesday bouncing back 11 cents.
Wednesday once again saw the sell-off continue for Corn and Beans as corn was down another 6.25 cents and beans falling 10.5 cents. 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlooks showed the corn belt becoming cooler and wetter.
Thursday markets were mixed and showed corn finding it’s footing after the sell-off with corn ending the day up 1.75 cents. Beans continued to weaken as negative coverage of the trade negotiations and lower than expected export sales continued the Wednesday sell-off with beans dropping another 7.25 cents.
Friday saw some recovery as the corn and bean markets rallied anticipating bullish news from the Pro-Farmer crop tour. As farmers and traders think the market found a bottom after the bearish crop reports, corn rallied 10.5 cents and beans were up 8.25 cents to end the day on Friday.
September 19 corn opened the week at 4.0975 to start the week and closed at 3.71 which was a 38.75 cent decrease breaking through the 100, and 200 day moving average.
- The WASDE and Crop Production reports lead this change.
- Corn’s G/E rating was at 57% this week, unchanged from last week, and down 13% from the same week last year.
November 19 soybeans opened the week at 8.9175 and finished the week at 8.7975 dropping 12 cents on the week.
- Soybean’s G/E was once again unchanged at 54% with the previous year being 66%.
September Wheat opened the week at 5.00 and ended the week at 4.7075 a 29.25 cent decrease.