Weekly Market Wrap-Up
Grain Market Commentary
Saturday, October 19, 2019
by Paul Matthews, Account Representative, The Andersons
Monday started the week with an uneven trade as the market attempts to decipher the weekend’s information on Phase 1 of the U.S./China trade deal. Markets began Sunday night with a solid trade, but then fizzled out as some uncertainty crept back into the market. This affected both grains and equity markets. Aside from trade news Monday, weather premium may find its way into the market given the weekend’s severe weather for the western corn belt which may see further harvest delays.
Tuesday’s trade saw markets cooling off from Monday after a lack of follow through and clarity regarding U.S./China trade negotiations.
Export Inspections for corn were on the low end of trade estimates at 18.5 million bushels, while soybeans exports fared better at 35.1 million bushels which were in line with average estimates. Wheat exports were reported at 17.0 million bushels, which is squarely in the middle of trade estimates.
NOPA crush figures for soybeans came in at 152.6 million bushels which was 3 million bushels under the lowest average estimate.
Crop Progress Tuesday night pegged corn at 22% harvested against a five-year average of 36%. Soybean harvest was reported at 26% versus a 49% five-year average.
Wednesday started lower given the progress numbers from Tuesday night, being a slight disappointment to the trade which was expecting a more severe downtrend in ratings.
Thursday saw prices regaining the previous day’s losses, while wheat followed through from a strong close Wednesday. The price of wheat extended to 3-month highs stemming from short-term supply concerns and forecasted drought conditions for growing regions overseas. The USDA is expected to survey acres in the western corn-belt to determine what damage was done with last week’s weather system. This was unexpected and has the market concerned as the latest sentiment was that the USDA would not analyze data from those hard-hit areas for some time. This data is expected to be reflected in the November 8th crop report.
U.S. Midwest weather for the later weekend has some rain moving in with temperatures looking to run below average in some areas, while potentially being above normal in others. This will keep harvest progress moderated and the trade will be anxiously awaiting ratings Monday night.
December corn opened the week at $4.0125 and closed at $3.91 a 10-cent decrease.
November soybeans opened the week at $9.405 and closed at $9.34, a 6-cent decrease.
December wheat opened the week at $5.13 and closed at $5.3225, a 19-cent increase.
Stay tuned to andersonsgrain.com for additional commodity market information.