Weekly Market Wrap-Up

Harvest pace is increasing little by little across the cornbelt and with that we are starting to see some market price consolidation take place.  Beans have retreated 42.75 cents since the Monday high, while corn dropped 14 cents on the week.  

Exports continue to be a noteworthy story that cannot be ignored.   Bean sales exceeded 3 mil metric ton yesterday, corn sales were at 2.139 mil metric ton.  The bean sales were a record weekly sale.   So far on the year, export pace is well above normal.  So far, 61% of the forecasted bean sales for the 2020/21 marketing year have been made. All this vs a 5 year avg of 36%. Cumulative corn sales for the 2020/21 market year are now at 38% vs a 25% 5 year avg.

The run up in the market has created a huge amount of renewed optimism amongst grain producers.  With the almost unheard of $1.75+ rally in late August and early September, also comes a technical picture that isn’t normal.   The funds were at one point long nearly 250,000 contracts of soybeans, I believe that was nearly the same length they had during the drought year of 2012.  250k contracts is 1.25 billion bushels, or 25% of the upcoming crop. (per the Sept WASDE S/D report)   We should expect a downturn as harvest pressure starts to build and especially as the early reports on yields are very good.  To start out the day on Thursday, the estimated fund positions were long 219k beans and long 65k corn.  Thursday’s lower trade certainly cut into those figures, then added back to the length slightly today.

As the bean bean momentum is trending lower, 9.855 SX20 would be a key area of support to keep an eye on.  SX20 resistance is around 10.08 and 10.20.   Corn support comes into play at 3.595 CZ20 and resistance at 3.66 CZ20.

Closing Friday CBOT bids

November beans- 10.0225

January beans- 10.0625

December corn- 3.6525

March corn- 3.7325